I’m ready to brush my teeth and cleanse my palate of the lingering taste of defeat, disappointment, fried chicken and beer. Game 162 of the Red Sox 2011 season conjured the dumbfounded, surreal, “Wait, did that really just happen?” feeling I haven’t felt since game seven of the 2003 ALCS.
But enough about last year. The season opens this afternoon in Detroit and Tuesday night’s final spring training game gave us a fresh slate and all the promise of a new season.
What I like:
Pitcher Josh Beckett was sharp in spring training. A 2.61 ERA, .79 WHIP (that’s not a typo) and opposing batting average of .117 gives me every reason to believe after the media-beating he’s taken this off-season, he’s ready to return to the ace we saw in 2007 and 2009.
Outfielder Cody Ross is swinging a hot bat. Right fielder J.D. Drew was a good, but not great, player for the Sox who never quite lived up to his $14 million a year contract. At $3 million for 2012, Ross was an inexpensive replacement for Drew. Even if he cools off, he’ll still put up better numbers than Drew’s 2011 clip of .222/.315/.302.
Infielder Mike Aviles has been named the starting shortstop. Nomar Garciaparra was the last Red Sox SS to hit over .300 in a season back in 2004. Aviles is capable of putting up the high batting average at shortstop that Sox fans have pined for since No. 5’s departure. More importantly, Aviles being named the starter takes the pressure off top prospect Jose Iglesias, and allows him to continue to develop in AAA. There is nothing worse than prematurely calling up a top prospect.
What worries me:
Which Carl Crawford will we see when he returns from the disabled list? The outfielder that hit .307/.356/.495 in 2010 or the one that hit .255/.289/.405 in 2011? It was painful to watch him at the plate last year. Maybe the rehab minor league stint will allow him to break down his mechanics and make some adjustments.
Was center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 season an aberration? His 32 home run season was nearly a four-fold increase from his previous career high of 9, and his .321/.376/.552 helped put him second in the MVP voting. It’s hard for me to imagine he is able to post the same numbers again this year, but he is eligible for contract arbitration at season’s end, so he’ll have every reason to perform.
And finally, pitching. Pitching. Pitching.
Let’s begin with the starting rotation. Behind Lester, Beckett and Buchholz, we have Daniel Bard, converted reliever and farm system product Felix Doubront. Those are two big question marks. Bard’s calling card is his 97-100 miles per hour fastball, but being forced to throw 180-plus innings as a starter this year (compared to 73 last year out of the bullpen in 2011) might cause his velocity to dip as the season wears on. Doubront is kind of a wild card. It will be nice to have another southpaw in the rotation, but his MLB track record is really too short to source for speculation. Let’s just hope the rotation doesn’t slot Bard and Doubront to both start games against the Yanks and Rays too often this season. Don’t think I forgot about Daisuke Matsuzaka; I’m intentionally omitting him from the conversation.
Bard’s move to the starting rotation also creates a lot of concern in the bullpen. Losing Jonathan Papelbon to free agency was a big blow, but the Sox made the smart move not trying to match the $12.5 million per year he is going to receive from the Phillies. He just hasn’t been as dominant during the last two years as he was from 2006 to 2009 when he made four straight All-Star appearances. Off-season acquisition Andrew Bailey looked like the perfect substitute for Papelbon until news broke earlier this week that an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand requires surgery. The Bailey-less bullpen is now devoid of a clear closer or setup man. Former White Sox All-Star closer Bobby Jenks seemed like a viable option, but his back procedures and his late-March DUI arrest may jeopardize his 2012 season. New Red Sox Mark Melancon converted 20 of 24 saves last year for the Astros and will likely assume the closer role in Bailey’s absence. Assuming Sox starters last seven innings, it still begs the question, who will bridge the gap in the 8th innning between Boston’s rotation and Melancon?
Prediction:
For those of you counting at home, I spent 183 words describing what I liked about the Sox going into the 2012 campaign and 413 listing out my major concerns. Like most Sox fans, I am a pessimist extraordinaire. Vegas has set the over/under for Red Sox wins at 89.5 this season. Even with the question marks, I think that’s a pretty reasonable number. They’ll probably squeak out berth in the new single elimination playoff game.
– Dylan Lewis can be reached at [email protected]