By C.G. Lynch

Political Science Professor William Mayer — author of “The Making of the Presidential Candidates, 2004” — delivered a lecture Thursday about the upcoming Democratic Pres-

idential Primaries, stressing the uncertainty of which candidate will emerge to challenge George W. Bush in the national election.

“Most front-runners emerge very early in the election cycle,” said Mayer. “At the moment, the democrats simply do not have a front runner. It is too early to offer a definitive answer.”

People on hand for the lecture included students, faculty and other guests. Former Massa-chusetts Governor and 1988 Democratic Presidential Nominee Michael Dukakis also sat in for a few minutes.

While the race remains close, Mayer highlighted two traditional “indicators” — national Gallup polls and campaign funds — that could signify which candidate will emerge.

While Howard Dean has raised the most money, just over $25 million, Senator John Kerry is only behind by around $20 million, suggesting that both candidates will have an advantage as the heavy campaigning directly before the primaries continues.

“The candidate who raises the most money, nine out of ten times, wins the nomination,” said Mayer, who later warned that the polls remain the more significant of the two indicators.

“Poll standings turns out to be much more important,” Mayer said. “That doesn’t mean that raising a lot of money isn’t important, but [the candidate] needs the support of regular party voters.”

During the lecture, Mayer said that while some candidates — including Senator Joseph Lieberman and General Wesley Clark — enjoyed narrow leads in the Gallup polls, no one has broken away.

According to Mayer, the primary will come down to Dean, Kerry and Senator John Edwards. Other substantial candidates, including Represent-

ative Dick Gephardt, Clark and Lieberman, will either run their resources dry or lack support.

“I think it is unlikely Wesley Clark will win the nomination,” Mayer said of the former general, who has raised approximately $3 million since entering the race in October. “Clark will find it very difficult to amass the resources needed for a general campaign.”

“Dick Gephardt has a good chance of winning Iowa,” he said. “The question then is, what next?”

Mayer also said that Lieberman’s strategy of riding the center and “adopting moderate sta-

nds on many issues” will stifle the Connecticut senator’s efforts to distinguish himself from other candidates.

In the end, Mayer reminded the audience that anything could happen in this year’s primary.

“This year’s presidential race is still wide open,” he said. “My own sense is that it will come down to Dean, Kerry or Edwards.”