There is a genuine argument that the American Football Conference, or AFC, has reigned supreme in the NFL over the last few seasons. The AFC’s Kansas City Chiefs have won the last two Super Bowls, and to make matters worse, there is not a single former MVP playing in the National Football Conference, or NFC, while there are three currently playing in the AFC: quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. In fact, of the last seven MVPs awarded, all but two have gone to players from AFC teams (the one exception being Rodgers, who now plays in the AFC with the New York Jets).
More so, the three most likely MVP candidates are all from the AFC: Jackson from the Baltimore Ravens, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow and odds-on favorite Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. Finally, three of the four favorites the sportsbooks have to win the Super Bowl are AFC teams. Let’s get into the upcoming wild-card round and unpack what to watch for this weekend.
(5) Los Angeles Chargers vs. (4) Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 11)
Fun fact: The Houston Texans have played in eight wild card games in the franchise’s entire history, and every single one of these games has kicked off at 4:30 p.m. on a Saturday. This slot is also the least attractive from a television and advertising point of view, so it’s not hard to figure out how the NFL feels about Houston’s popularity and marketability.
That being said, this could be a very exciting game. Strong, young quarterbacks lead both teams — the Texans have sophomore C.J. Stroud and the Chargers’ 26-year-old Justin Herbert. Both head coaches are known for their defensive and physical focus, with DeMeco Ryans and Jim Harbaugh leading the Texans and the Chargers, respectively. This matchup can illustrate the differing expectations. The Chargers were not expected to be the top wild card team in a stacked AFC and finish with an 11-6 record, while the Texans would have been disappointed with finishing as the lowest-seeded division winner with a 10-7 record. This game should still be a good watch as the lower-seeded Chargers are viewed as favorites, with the Las Vegas sportsbooks predicting them winning by three points, making this matchup the closest in the AFC.
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (3) Baltimore Ravens (8 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 11)
Possibly the most highly-anticipated matchup from the AFC slate is this AFC North divisional rivalry. Mercurial superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson leads the Baltimore Ravens. At the same time, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the embodiment of a team that, no matter what, seems to stay consistent and always do well. While they don’t have the superstars (at least on the offensive side of the ball) that many of their opponents may, coach Mike Tomlin always has them competing hard and in playoff contention. This is the third matchup this season between the two teams,, which have split the season series thus far. The Ravens have long underperformed expectations in the playoffs, but they might be a better all-around team than before thanks to the addition of elite running back Derrick Henry. Much like the Chargers and Texans, both of these sides have strong defenses and fight hard, making this an exciting matchup. That being said, this game is very much in the Ravens’ hands, and the Baltimore team losing would be another disappointing premature ending to their season. The sportsbooks have them as 10-point favorites, and they’ve been a better team all season, and another early playoff exit would be incredibly disappointing for them.
(7) Denver Broncos vs. (2) Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 12)
The Denver Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, have been one of the biggest surprises this season. Nix was the fifth quarterback drafted last April, yet he has the best passing stats of any rookie quarterback behind the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels. While this could be largely due to head coach Sean Payton (who has the reputation as a quarterback whisperer) and having the best offensive line in football, Nix has still blown away expectations this season. This leads the Broncos to a vintage cold-weather game in Buffalo Jan. 12. With a high of below freezing, snow forecasted and Highmark Stadium being notoriously windy, this game may not be the most enjoyable experience to be at, but many fans consider it “football weather.”
The Bills come into the game as heavy favorites by 8.5 points, largely because of Allen’s stellar performance all season long as well as a strong defense. Bills coach Sean McDermott has a reputation for making games tough for rookie quarterbacks, and add in the cold weather aspect (Nix has limited experience playing games in cold climates throughout both his college and NFL career), this could be the start the Bills need to finally get over the hump and make the Super Bowl.
Here are the games to watch in the NFC this weekend:
There were many tight battles for possession of the top spots in the NFL’s National Football Conference, or NFC, this season. Seven teams will play for a trip to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.
For the first time in franchise history, the Detroit Lions have earned the No. 1 seed and are the NFC North champions for the second consecutive year. They will play either the Minnesota Vikings or the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (7) Green Bay Packers (4:30 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 12)
The Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers have top-10 offenses and defenses, so this matchup is sure to be close. The Packers rank fifth in total offensive yards with 370 yards per game. The Eagles come in at eighth with 367 yards per game. The teams faced off against each other in Week 1, with Philadelphia winning 34-29.
Eagles running back Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards with 2,005 yards, and wide receiver A.J. Brown is in the top 20 for receiving yards with 1,079. Philadelphia narrowly avoided a major setback following a concussion quarterback Jalen Hurts sustained in Week 16. Hurts was at practice this week and is expected to play. The Packers will also be at a potential disadvantage without star cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in Week 8 and has not played since Nov. 17. Quarterback Jordan Love left Green Bay’s Week 18 contest against the Chicago Bears early due to a hand injury. He is likely to get the start on Jan. 12, but will not be at 100%.
Neither quarterback is sure to be at their best for this matchup, leaving both teams vulnerable. As a result, this will be a closer game than originally anticipated. That being said, the Eagles have the best defense in the league, including safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who notched a pick six and an interception against the Dallas Cowboys Dec. 29 — which the Packers will have a hard time overcoming.
(3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (6) Washington Commanders (8 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 12)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Commanders will be yet another matchup of top-10 league offenses.
The Buccaneers defeated the Commanders 37-20 in Week 1, but the Commanders have come a long way since. Washington’s rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is currently the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He ranks second in quarterback rush yards and has grown as a player throughout the season. However, he does have a challenger in the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield, currently the third-best quarterback in the league.
The Buccaneers have pulled off victories against other playoff contenders this season. In Week 2, they defeated the Lions 20-16 and the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 in Week 15. Tampa Bay’s offense should be able to put up a high enough score to offset a surging Daniels and send them to the next round.
(4) Los Angeles Rams vs. (5) Minnesota Vikings (8 p.m. Monday, Jan. 13)
The Minnesota Vikings are easily the best Wild Card team in the NFC. Had the Vikings been victorious against the Lions in Week 18, they would have received the No. 1 seed. Although the Los Angeles Rams dished out a loss to Minnesota 30-20 in Week 8, so this will be no easy feat for the Vikings.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has been an unexpected standout player this season after filling in for an injured J.J. McCarthy. Darnold also has one of the most reliable pass receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson, who has 1,533 receiving yards total and averages 90.2 yards per game. Running back Aaron Jones will also be an extremely competent ball-carrier should Jefferson be shut down by the Los Angeles defense.
The Vikings will be looking for revenge for their Week 8 loss, and that will take them over the edge and send them to the Lions in the divisional round.
