Film had a slow but exciting start in 2016, buoyed by surprise hits Deadpool, The Nice Guys and The Jungle Book. But it was in the waning months of the year that many, if not all, of the current Oscar favorites had their mainstream releases in the United States.

This op-ed may contain some spoilers. I’m going to give my 10 most important categories in reverse order. My pick will be in bold. I’ll end with my top 10 films of the year and some miscellaneous notes. So, without further ado:

10. Best Film Editing

The Nominees:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

What will win? La La Land. This one is mostly deserved, with many quick-cut sequences between songs and scenes that are not only creative, but illuminating.
What should win? Arrival. All of the transitions between shots, especially when Amy Adams’ character meets the heptapods, are thrilling and bring a higher sense of levity to the film. But 14 nominations is hard to beat.
What do I want to win?  Moonlight. With a limited budget, the lighting and lush colors help develop Chiron’s sensibilities with the world. The longer takes and quick cuts between close-ups of characters’ faces give such an intimacy to the film, which is what we loved in shots in The Revenant and Whiplash.

9. Best Original Score

The Nominees:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

What will win? La La Land. It’s hard to dispute this. If you’re a musical and don’t win this award, then are you a musical?
What should win? La La Land.
What do I want to win? Jackie. The technical, The Social Network-esque vibes of this original score are enthralling. It elevates the somewhat standard biopic considerably. I encourage you to take a listen.

8. Cinematography

The Nominees:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

What will win? La La Land. It is so beautifully made, and it presents stylistically different uses of the circular tracking shot (most notably in the planetarium and “Someone in the Crowd” sequences). Plus, the momentum it carries with 14 nominations makes it tough to beat.
What should win? Arrival. There are some early sequences with aerial shots of the alien pod that are breathtaking. The lush color representation of the surrounding areas makes the film an immersive movie experience.
What do I want to win? Moonlight. There is no more intimately shot movie this year than this one. I would argue the use of the circular tracking shot is more essential to the plot in Moonlight, where it’s more of a director’s pedantic showing off in La La Land.

7. Best Original/Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees for Original Screenplay:
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

What will win? Manchester by the Sea. There is something unbelievably real in the way this film captures grief and those awkward pauses in dialogue that normal people experience all the time. Sometimes we laud a movie for its witty, fast-paced dialogue, but we forget that it’s completely unrealistic.
What should win? Manchester by the Sea. It’s director and writer Kenneth Lonergan’s magnum opus.
What do I want to win? The Lobster. Not many people have heard of or seen this movie, but in this dystopian world, there is some incredibly snarky and witty dialogue that I personally loved.

The Nominees for Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

What will win? Moonlight. The true power of this film’s dialogue is told through silence and small, meaningful looks and gestures. The nonverbal communication captured makes each uttered word hold more power.
What should win? Moonlight. The only other film in contention is Fences, but if you didn’t like the play, there’s no chance you’d like this faithful-to-a-fault film representation.
What do I want to win? Moonlight.

6. Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Who will win? Mahershala Ali. His performance for maybe 30 minutes is astounding, as his presence stays with you throughout the rest of the film in both your heart and Chiron’s.
Who should win? Mahershala Ali.
Who do I want to win? Mahershala Ali. It’s finally time for Remy Danton to get his Oscar.

5. Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Who will win? Viola Davis. I don’t think this is completely underserved, because she was incredibly powerful and moving opposite Denzel, but the problem is that she was opposite Denzel. She should have been nominated for a leading role, so I don’t believe she is appropriate to give this to. But as Davis usually is in her roles, she was emotionally charged.
Who should win? Michelle Williams in her small role in Manchester almost stole the whole show from Casey Affleck. There is one scene where she tries to reconcile with her ex-husband post-tragedy, and I think it was the single best-acted scene this year in film.
Who do I want to win? Michelle Williams.

4. Best Director

The Nominees:
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damian Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Who will win? Damian Chazelle. His Whiplash vision was denied by the Birdman train two years ago, and I’m not sure any other director showed significantly superior direction for them to steal it from Chazelle.
Who should win? Anyone but Mel Gibson. He brilliantly directed Hacksaw Ridge, but his direction is a tier below the others, if not more.
Who do I want to win? Any one of these brilliant directors could win and I’d be okay with it. It’s hard to say which one was clearly better, but if La La Land starts sweeping everything, it’d be annoying if Damian Chazelle wins.

3. Best Actress

The Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Who will win? Emma Stone. I’ll just flat-out say it. She was good, but not great. The real greatness of the film is in the visual and visceral storytelling, not specifically in the acting performances.
Who should win? Natalie Portman. Maybe Isabelle Huppert. But I think my generation will remember Jackie Kennedy through her performance.
Who do I want to win? Natalie Portman. This is her resurgence back to the top (near-top of the acting scene). But, I think it’d be nice if Ruth Negga won. She was so perfectly sweet, yet strong in her role. I’m happy she was nominated.

2. Best Actor

The Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Who will win? Casey Affleck. There is one scene in which he finds out that Michelle Williams had mostly moved on from their tragic history and is pregnant—I’ll never understand how he created that look of utter anguish and ennui plastered on his face. That’s acting.
Who should win? Casey Affleck.
Who do I want to win? Casey Affleck.

1. Best Picture

The Nominees:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

What will win? La La Land. It has won every other major award, and it’s the perfect storm of optimism and catering to Hollywood sensibilities that it’d be surprising (and great) if it lost.
What should win? Moonlight. It’s technically on-par with La La Land, compares well script-wise to Manchester by the Sea, has bolder direction than Arrival and boasts the best three-act story of the year.
What do I want to win? Moonlight, duh.

My Top 10 Movies of 2016

10. 10. Tie – The Jungle Book, Nocturnal Animals
11. 9. The Witch: Boldly directed, unconventional horror film, more Shining than Halloween.
12. 8. Loving: Very sweet and non-exploitative look at a wonderful interracial couple in the 60s.
13. 7. Fences: It’s fortunate I liked the play.
14. 6. Hell or High Water: A well-paced, bank-robbing thriller that has unfortunately been undervalued.
15. 5. Jackie: A virtuoso performance from Natalie Portman carries this movie, with help from its score.
16. 4. Arrival: It’s surprisingly tragic and thought-provoking. The trailers didn’t do it justice.
17. 3. La La Land: It makes a good case for the best musical I’ve ever seen.
18. 2. Manchester by the Sea: regrettably too depressing to give the Oscar to, especially post-2016.
19. 1. Moonlight: should be remembered as both the best and most significant film of the year.

Miscellaneous 2016 Movie Notes

• * Zootopia and OJ: Made in America should take Best Animated Film and Best Documentary, respectively.
• * Silence, the latest Martin Scorsese feature, was disappointing and 45 minutes too long.
• * Captain America: Civil War was the best superhero movie I’ve seen since X-Men: First Class.
• * Ryan Gosling probably had a better performance in The Nice Guys.
• * Finding Dory doesn’t hold a candle to Nemo.
• * Good year for horror movies: The Witch, Lights Out, Don’t Breathe, 10 Cloverfield Lane.
• * Tom Hanks gave a very Tom Hanks-y performance in Sully, but it wasn’t great.
• * I liked Allied and The Girl on the Train, but many critics found them predictable.
• * If La La Land goes 14/14, then maybe more things are rigged than I originally thought.

– Lal Birali is a freshman pursuing a combined major in computer science and business administration. 

Photo courtesy Getty Images