On Nov. 7, distinguished professor of political science Costas Panagopoulos and Fox News decision desk Director Arnon Mishkin held a panel in Shillman Hall to answer students’ questions about Donald Trump’s election to the presidency, making him the first president-elect in over a century to win two non-consecutive presidential terms.

Trump received 312 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win and defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, who received 226 votes. Trump also won the popular vote, with over 75 million votes to Harris’ 71 million. Trump’s success in each of the critical swing states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada — was a primary factor in his victory. Trump’s triumph in these seven states, six of which President Joe Biden won in 2020, shocked many people.

“For me, personally, I can say I never thought for a moment there was no way Trump could win this election, but I think the magnitude of the Republican victory on Tuesday did surprise many people, including me,” said Panagopoulos, a former NBC decision desk member and a current member of the Edison Research decision desk.

The panel, titled “What Just Happened? Reflections on the Outcomes of the 2024 Elections,” was organized by Northeastern’s Department of Political Science and began with an introduction by professor Christopher Bosso, the interim political science department chair. The panelists, who co-teach a 2024 election pop-up course, debriefed the factors that led to President-elect Trump’s victory over Vice President Harris Nov. 5.

On Election Day, Edison Research — where Panagopoulos started working during the 2022 midterm elections — conducted exit poll surveys and compiled voter data to make projections that it shares with news networks, which then make calls based on the polling data. The networks in partnership with Edison Research include NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and formerly Fox News.

After the 2016 election, Mishkin said, Fox News left the national election pool. Fox then established the Fox News Voter Analysis, conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, alongside the Associated Press. 

“Our models probably resemble your models very closely, at least the older ones,” Mishkin told Panagopoulos. 

A significant factor to which the panelists partially attributed Trump’s victory was a shift in the voting habits of many demographic groups. Panagopoulos cited the exit poll run by Edison Research, which represented a 14-point increase in Trump’s performance among Latino voters in 2024 when compared to 2020. Additionally, Trump did 11 points better in the 18-24 age bracket than he did in 2020.

“If you listen to the narrative of this election, the narrative was that young people were so energized and enthusiastic about Kamala Harris,” Panagopoulos said. “No one was talking about how great Donald Trump was doing appealing to the youngest voters in the electorate, and yet, that is a huge, huge jump.”

The exit poll also indicated that independent voters comprised 34% of this year’s election, the highest representation independent voters have held in the electorate. Trump performed five points better with independent voters and six points better with non-college-educated voters than in 2020.

When asked in the exit poll which issue voters cared about the most this election, 34% said the state of democracy was the most important issue for them. 

“We put it on the exit poll, but I never thought it would be the top issue,” Panagopoulos said. 

The second most important issue for voters on the exit poll was the economy, at 32%, with abortion being the third most important issue at 14%. Eighty percent of voters who said the economy was the most important issue voted for Trump, while 74% of voters who said abortion was the most important issue voted for Harris. Immigration was most important for 11% of voters, and foreign policy was most important for 4%. Trump led the poll for both types of voters as well.

“The stuff Trump did with men, young men in particular, and the stuff Harris did, or didn’t do, didn’t generate the kind of enthusiasm and drive that I think would have been key to her winning,” Mishkin said, citing the impact gender had on polling.

According to the exit poll, Trump did two points better among men and three points better among women in 2024 than in 2020. 

“I would speculate that it’s not that Trump did better amongst women, but that Harris didn’t get them out,” Mishkin said.

Before opening up the floor for questions, Panagopoulos and Mishkin discussed the scope of the Republican victory across all branches of government. Not only did Republicans win the majority in the Senate — and are expected to keep a majority in the House of Representatives — but they made advancements in many crucial state governments, including flipping the Michigan House, creating a supermajority in the South Carolina Senate and maintaining control of the Pennsylvania Senate.

The Democratic Party had advancements on the state level, too, including breaking the Republican supermajority in the North Carolina House and maintaining the majority in the Maine and Minnesota houses. 

“Something is going on with the Republican and Trump appeal to voters in this country that the Democrats have to take very, very seriously right now,” Panagopoulos said. “Do some serious soul searching about the package of policies that they’re presenting for the American public to consider.” 

When asked by a student if there was evidence of the election being rigged, Mishkin and Panagopoulos responded “no” in unison.

Mishkin said that the fear tactics Trump’s campaign used likely motivated his supporters.

“Fear and anger are very powerful motivators of human behavior, and it is not unusual for political candidates to exploit them to get people to do something like to vote or to vote for them or against someone else,” he said.